Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and tips up a 50/1 best bet treble.
Newcastle to win and under 3.5 goals at 7/2 with Sky Bet immediately stands out as a play dripping in value.
On the face of it, you can make a solid case for Crystal Palace at home. They're well organised, carry a threat in transition and have built a reputation for being awkward to play against. But when you dig a little deeper into the scheduling and historical trends around Oliver Glasner, the picture shifts quite dramatically.
Glasner's record following a midweek European knockout game is a major red flag. His teams have won just once in their last 10 matches in that scenario, scoring just five goals across those fixtures. That's a huge drop-off in attacking output and suggests fatigue, a lack of sharpness and a more cautious approach.
Newcastle, fresh from some time off, can take full advantage in a low scoring win.
Nottingham Forest have had more managers than home wins (3) in the Premier League this season.
It's not for the want of trying based on their shots volume. Forest have scored just 13 Premier League goals at the City Ground this season, despite having the eighth most shots at home (228) and they've scored only one goal from 100 shots taken in their last six Premier League home games.
Concentrating on the Forest player shots markets is the way to approach this one. Elliott Anderson has been the man to follow when it comes to shots for Forest of late having hit 24 in his last nine games, resulting in 2.65 shots per 90 average. He's a play with Sky Bet to hit two or more shots at 9/4.
Appointing Roberto De Zerbi in a relegation scrap is like switching to a high-wire act without a safety net. Thrilling if it works, disastrous if it doesn't.
Is De Zerbi really what Spurs need right now?
Zerbi offers philosophy, risk and a high ceiling of performance level. His teams can look like they're playing a different sport to everyone else, but that uniqueness comes with volatility.
And volatility, in a relegation scrap, is a dangerous currency. De Zerbi has a history of clashing with those around him too - not ideal when calm decision-making is required in a crisis. There's a reason some of Europe's elite clubs have admired him from afar rather than taking the plunge.
This will be fascinating to see how Spurs react to his methods with such pressure in the background. It makes this a really tricky betting heat in isolation but there is a bet that does offer some potential as if this appointment goes wrong, it's not going to quietly fizzle out. It's going to unravel, meaning Spurs not to win another game this season at 15/2 with Sky Bet is worth a nibble to small stakes.
Over the last three seasons, Man City have taken 78 points from a possible 87 from April 1 onwards whilst Arsenal have taken 55 from a possible 84. That relentlessness up the run-in is a real thing masterminded by Pep Guardiola where his teams can stay focused yet produce elite performances to win in high pressure environments.
Nico O'Reilly is thriving in this type of environment with his runs into the box proving very difficult for opposition players to stop. He's had 10 shots on target in his last eight games for City yet the algorithms are a little behind on this extra output meaning the 11/8 with Sky Bet for one or more O'Reilly shots on target is a value play.
Manchester United have lost just once in their last 14 Premier League games since Christmas. Playing at Old Trafford is once again one of the toughest fixtures to face in the Premier League and the market is replicating that with Michael Carrick's side 1/2 with Sky Bet to take maximum points.
Leeds are always a tough nut to crack though, losing just twice across their last 10 matches. They will be very aggressive in the duels and Jayden Bogle will have a busy evening up against the dangerous ball carrying of Matheus Cunha, who has been responsible for drawing 24 cards off the opposition since the start of last season. Bogle has picked up a card in his last two appearances and is 5/2 with Sky Bet for the hat-trick.
